2010 marked the first time in years that the winner of the Best Musical/Comedy category at the Golden Globes was not a musical or a sophisticated indie black comedy. Rather, it was "The Hangover," a comedy that worked so well and basically earned* its award because it was just so refreshingly funny.
This might mean little for "The Hangover"'s Oscar chances. It probably has a slim shot at Best Picture, but a Best Screenplay nomination is likely its best shot.
Still, I don't see the Golden Globes as much of a predictor for the Oscars. I think it's more of a way of seeing what people in the inner film circles are excited about at the moment. In that case my thinking was confirmed, "Avatar" is the official frontrunner for Best Picture. Yes, voters walked onto Pandora, and now they simply can't seem to get away. Hopefully, they're not as crazy as these people. I'm not necessarily happy that "Avatar" is stealing the thunder from several other more worthy films, but I have to hand it to James Cameron: never in a million years did I think the entire world would fall in love with a three hour movie about ten foot tall blue-cat-monkey people.
The other film I suspected as a spoiler for "Avatar," "Up in the Air," faired only decently tonight. It took home a well deserved Best Screenplay award, solidifying it as by far the front runner for Best Adapted Screenplay.
Meanwhile, the two best supporting actors were officially confirmed as the front runners. Christoph Waltz was the first thing on everyone's mind from the second audiences first saw him ask for a glass of milk. Meanwhile, I knew Mo'Nique was the only imaginable winner from the minute I saw what was then called "Push" at Sundance.
Another big film, "The Hurt Locker," went home totally empt handed. However, it has been gaining much momentum lately so I do expect it to do much better at the Oscars. Plus, it's sweeping of the Critics Choice Awards were a very promising sign. That $12 million at the box office though, really isn't.
The lead acting categories are a whole other story. Robert Downey Jr. should be happy with his win for "Sherlock Holmes" and expect nothing further. While George Clooney still has something of a shot, Jeff Bridges seems like the real man to beat right now. I haven't seen Bridges' performance in "Crazy Heart" yet, but to Bridges' awards success I say: Dude Abides.
The most unpredictable category this year is the Best Actress category. There are four very possible candidates right now, and two who equally have a clear shot at winning. Meryl Streep has a good shot for "Julie & Julia" simply because, she's Meryl Streep. Plus, her performance has gotten nothing but absolute raves. Sandra Bullock's performance in "The Blind Side" also has a very good shot. Not only has she been lauded for her performance, but the film itself has become something of an underdog. Its amazing box office success was expected by no one. Perhaps this could play into votes.
Unfortunately, there still seems like little hope for "Inglourious Basterds" besides Christoph Waltz. I have a good feeling "Basterds" might've won Best Screenplay tonight if the Globes split it up into two separate categories. Only the WGA Awards will be able to answer that. In the mean time, Tarantino will have to wait another few years for his long deserved Best Director Oscar. If Scorsese (who was honored tonight) could wait 40 years, then so can he.
On a side note: am I the only one bothered by the fact that Best Drama always seems to be more significant to analysts than Best Comedy? Seriously, when will people start taking Comedies more seriously.
*I would've voted for "(500) Days of Summer." "The Hangover" might've been the funniest comedy of the year, but it wasn't the most brilliantly made.
Full List of Winners Here.