Oscars 2013: These Are a Few of My Favorite Things

It's easy to be cynical about an awards show that's basically an over long, overly expensive way for Hollywood to congratulate itself. But no matter what, I look forward to the Oscars every year. It's like my Super Bowl. So instead of complaining and mocking, I will instead present some of my favorite things about this year's ceremony (After the Jump):

The Oscars: Who Will Win

Best Picture

Who knew that Ben Affleck's Oscar snub would be the best possible thing for him? Ever since his name was not included on the Best Director list, Hollywood has rallied around "Argo." Lately, I have been rooting for Affleck, because I love a good redemption story. However, the fact that Affleck still doesn't have an Oscar isn't as bad, considering Scorsese just won his first one less than a decade ago. Affleck is still young and he has a long career of Oscar nominations ahead of him. But that won't stop the Academy. "Argo" is a good, old-fashioned thriller about Hollywood. And if Hollywood loves anything, it's congratulating themselves. Expect "Argo" to be the first film since "Driving Miss Daisy" to win Best Picture without a nominated director to accompany it.

Best Director

"Life of Pi" was lauded nearly across the board for its visuals. "Amour" is a critical favorite and Haneke could score a surprise win from that. But I doubt it. Spielberg certainly doesn't need any more praise heaped his way. However, that won't stop Spielberg from winning this year for bringing an era to life with precise detail. This will be Steven Spielberg's third win for Best Director. I don't think it will be long until he gets a fourth and ties John Ford's record.

Best Actor

There are some fine performances in this category. Any other year, Bradley Cooper would have walked away with the award. But when Daniel Day-Lewis is nominated, no one can compete.

Best Actress

This race started off as a duel between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. For a while, I thought Chastain had it in the bag for her challenging and commanding performance in Zero Dark Thirty. There is a slight chance that veteran Emmanuelle Riva could score a late-in-life sympathy vote. This race though seems like a clear victory for Jennifer Lawrence. Lawrence may only be 22, but she is one of the most likable stars working today and her performance in "Silver Linings Playbook" was so good that she even took Robert De Niro to school.

Best Supporting Actor: 

Tommy Lee Jones held his own against Daniel Day-Lewis in "Lincoln," which is no easy task. Alan Arkin was a joy to watch in "Argo" as always, but he just won a few years ago. Seeing Christoph Waltz win again would be great, not only because he's a terrific actor but also because that guy can rock any stage he steps on. This is the toughest race to call, but I think I'm going to have to settle with Robert De Niro in "Silver Linings Playbook." There's nothing wrong with honoring a good, heartfelt comeback.

Best Supporting Actress

No analysis needed. Anne Hathaway (for "Les Mis," not "The Dark Knight Rises," in case you were confused) has this one in the bag.

And the rest:

Best Original Screenplay: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo
Best Animated Feature: Wreck-It Ralph
Best Documentary: Searching for Sugar Man
Best Foreign Film: Amour
Best Editing: Argo
Best Cinematography: Life of Pi
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Costume Design: Les Miserables
Best Production Design: Les Miserables
Best Makeup: Les Miserables
Best Original Score: Lincoln
Best Original Song: Skyfall
Best Sound Mixing: Les Miserables
Best Sound Editing: Argo
Best Documentary Short: Open Heart
Best Animated Short: The Simpsons: The Longest Daycare
Best Live Action Short: Asad

Oscars 2013: Who Should Win

Best Picture: Django Unchained

I probably don't need to bring this one up again. But this is my blog so back off! Anyway, Quentin Tarantino continues to push the form forward more and more as others try to resist change. More than anything, "Django" was the most interesting, and often the funniest, film of the year. By embracing inaccuracy, it provided a more accurate satire of backwards southern nobility than any serious historical film could ever dream up. The fact that "Django" both balanced a somber condemnation of slavery with farce on the level of "Blazing Saddles" is still a marvel to me. As the Academy voters grow younger and younger, one day they will embrace Tarantino for the master he is, and his films for the masterpieces they almost always are.

Best Director: Michael Haneke (Amour)

Maybe "Amour" went on a little too long for my taste, but I cannot overlook Haneke's haunting work. Sometimes, the emotions behind "Amour" are too overwhelming for me to even think about. Haneke presented aging and old age in such a removed way that it actually draws us closer to the characters. By stepping back, all of the small details and actions are allowed to unfold.

Seth MacFarlane to Host the Oscars

This morning, it was announced that Seth MacFarlane will be hosting this year's Oscars. While my thoughts on MacFarlane are always a little mixed*, for once I can say that the Academy made a smart choice.

I like MacFarlane as a person, and have a lot of respect for him. I cannot even fathom how he has three shows on television and still has time to write and direct a feature film. Also, he did a fine job hosting "SNL" this season, because the guy just looked like he had a blast being there.

In recent years, the Academy has seemed to have trouble figuring out what kind of host they want. With MacFarlane, they get it all: he can sing show tunes, dance around, do impressions, and tell jokes. While he connects primarily with a younger audience, he will also keep the older voters and guests entertained with his Sinatra-like singing.

I can now anticipate that the show will be less of a drag to watch this year. MacFarlane will certainly be more lively than James Franco, and fresher than Billy Crystal. Maybe this will open some doors and in the future we will get other multi-talented hosts such as Stephen Colbert and Jimmy Fallon (who had to back out from hosting duties). Still, I am going to take this time to complain, because this is the Oscars, and the Oscars always come with something to complain about. Can the Academy ever get a host who will be sharp, funny, and a little provocative in the same way that Jon Stewart was? Could someone like Louis C.K. or Patton Oswalt ever host? Only in my wildest dreams.

People Who Could Make Great Hosts in the Future: John Mulaney, Stephen Colbert, Conan O'Brien, Donald Glover, Tina Fey, Jon Hamm, Neil Patrick Harris

*On the one hand, Seth MacFarlane created "Family Guy," which had three of the best seasons of any animated show ever. On the other hand, Seth MacFarlane also ruined "Family Guy." And again, on the other hand, he created "American Dad," a show which is consistently underrated.

Here's MacFarlane's Spot-On Ryan Lochte Impression:

One of my favorite "Family Guy" moments ever. I can only imagine this is how MacFarlane felt upon hearing the good news:

This Ad Just Set Back The Anti-Piracy Movement By A Decade

The piracy debate is a tough one, and it would take me too long to fully explain my stance. So instead, here's a great way to make people not want to go to the movies. Reminding people that going to the movies is paying for an experience is very noble, but why pick "Battleship," a movie based on a board game? Maybe this weekend's "Hunger Games," which broke box office records, could have worked. Or some kind of appeal to the great movies of the past, I'm sure the Academy Awards has more than enough montages to lend. Seriously, "Battleship" is the last thing to make me want to buy a movie ticket and some over-buttered popcorn.

Oscars 2012 Wrap Up: Let the Dog Speak

And now, I conclude my incessant takeover of your Social Media newsfeeds with my very last blog post of awards season. As predicted, "The Artist" took home the top prize and a few more. Most surprisingly, Meryl Streep beat out Viola Davis for Best Actress, because apparently people were outraged that she only won two. Most disappointingly, George Clooney lost Best Actor to Jean Dujardin. I have respect for Mr. Dujardin and he gave a great performance, but his transformation was nothing like Clooney's.

For now, Clooney will just have to live with the fact that he's George Clooney.

The Oscars: The Drinking Game

Given my age, I cannot officially endorse any drinking of any sort. So I will say that this game is for the 21+ readers out there (or if you are overseas, 12+ most likely). If you're underage, then I guess you'll just have to have a fun night with grape juice or something. Use your imagination. Many people have made Oscar drinking games in the past, but I would like to think that mine is at least slightly original. Here are the cues to drink. Feel free to add in any of your own: 

• Billy Crystal makes a joke about how old Christopher Plummer is. 
• Sean Penn addresses a humanitarian crisis.
• A montage honoring old movies.
• A montage honoring a bunch of movies that came out in the past year that nobody liked but still get a mention at the Oscars anyway. 
• In their acceptance speech, an award winner tells their kids watching at home to "go to bed." 
• Someone makes a joke about George Clooney.
• George Clooney says something really funny and charming.
• George Clooney makes a reference to a humanitarian crisis or a political cause in his acceptance speech.
• Someone makes a joke about Meryl Streep.
• Someone appears on stage in a "War Horse" costume.
• A dance number dedicated to silent movies.
• Someone makes a joke about how many movies Ryan Gosling has been in this year.
• Sean Penn goes on stage saying the previous joke about Ryan Gosling wasn't funny, and that he is a talented and valued actor.
• A nominee mouths something at the camera, or makes a Jim Halpert face. 
• Two talented actors get on stage and perform a terrible bit of scripted publicity for their upcoming movie.
• Someone makes a joke about the amount of Jews in the room. 
• Someone makes a joke about Republicans, to which the entire audience cheers.
• Fox News runs a new story about liberal bias in Hollywood the next day (this one is for the morning after). 

The Oscars: Who Will Win

Best Picture: The Artist

            Thanks to a strange new voting system, there are nine Best Picture nominees this year. “War Horse” might have won in a different year, and “Hugo” merits much consideration for transforming 3D into a viable art form. This year, the nostalgia of “The Artist” has been contagious in various awards ceremonies. Look for it to be the second silent movie ever to win Best Picture.              

Best Director: Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist)

            With just a few rare exceptions, the Best Picture and Best Director choices go to the same movie. Hazanavicius will be victorious along with his movie for bringing the art of silence to typically noisy 21^st century movie theaters. Plus, he already picked up the Directors Guild of America Award. So far, only 6 directors who have this honor have not gone on to win the Oscar. Hazanavicius will not be a part of this statistic.

Horrible Decisions: The Ten Best Movies That Weren't Nominated For Best Picture

As I get older, I feel that I get more and more pessimistic about award ceremonies, especially the Oscars. Unlike sports-related competitions, the Oscars are not about which movie is best, but rather which movie had the most lavish ad campaign. The recent revelation that Academy voters are none too diverse certainly did not help. To think that some of the most revered movies of all time weren't even nominated. They are the bold outsiders. Some were completely overlooked, others were just too damn "hip." Many on the proceeding list would be chosen by many, and a few I exclusively would have chosen had I been a voter. I present with you the ten best movies that deserved a Best Picture nomination, arranged by year of release:

Horrible Decisions: The Ten Best Movies That Didn't Win Best Picture

Every once in a while, I ponder why the Oscars even exist, and why I should care. Sure, they have no monumental impact on the world, but for me, the Oscars are a little like Super Bowl, just a little less dramatic. Voters have a bad habit of picking the wrong winner, year after year. Sometimes, the real winner is obvious. Other times, people won't realize it until 50 years later. Click after the jump for my list of the ten best movies that should have won Best Picture (sorted by year of release):

The Oscars: Who Should Win

Best Picture: War Horse 
Not because it feels like a Best Picture winner, because movies made solely for the purpose of winning Best Picture are just as bad as movies made solely for profit. "War Horse" simply struck a cord that no other movie this year did. Its combination of sight and sound is unparalleled; its story is the stuff that makes a classic possible. Few movies can come with a large set of flaws, yet still come out as my favorite movie of the year. Spielberg realizes, like few others do, the power of moments of pure cinema.

Best Director: Terrence Malick
If you put Terrence Malick's name into just about any search engine, only one picture will consistently pop up of him.* In it, he looks more like a guy who has gone bird watching for two decades (which he actually did). Make no mistake, this is one of the greatest living directors. Part of the intrigue of a Terrence Malick movie has always been the director's intensely private life. However, he always intended that so the viewer would focus on the movie itself, so that is exactly what we are going to do right now. I still don't totally understand "The Tree of Life," but it is the kind of movie that is intended to be as dumbfounding as life itself so often is. The movie brings a sense of wonder to the creation of the universe, and an intimacy in its portrayal of family. And of course, it looks stunning too; as if each frame is another painting.

Best Actor: George Clooney
I have always liked Clooney's acting. However, he never really stuck out to me until recently. In "The Descendants," he didn't go through the physical change that he did in his Oscar winning turn in "Syriana," but he discovered new emotional range as an actor. In "The Descendants," he looked less like a movie star and more like an ordinary working family man who has been warn out by both. He continues to impress me with his wide range of performances, and he truly earns the comparisons he receives as a modern day Cary Grant. Like Grant, despite having a huge public persona to live up to, he would still do anything to make a role as funny or dramatic as possible.^

Best Actress: Rooney Mara
Nice girl Erica Albright took a turn for her role in "The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo." She created both the strongest, and most vulnerable, character onscreen this year. Lisabeth Salander was already a popular character, but Mara cemented her as one of the great feminine heros of our time. She took a physical and emotional transformation that is nothing short of brave. Bravery is usually the last thing that comes to mind when I think of actors, but Mara truly understands what it means to embody a character, and take a walk in their shoes for a day.

Best Supporting Actor: Jonah Hill
Jonah Hill has been a favorite of mine since his brief scene-stealing performance in "The 40-Year-Old Virgin." His comedic chops transferred over well this year in "Moneyball." He gives such a great dramatic turn because, in a way, he still acted as if he was a comedy. Peter Brand might have just been a more grown up version of himself in "Superbad." I hope Jonah Hill continues to take comedic roles, but his newfound dramatic talents are worth continuing to explore.

Best Supporting Actress: Melissa McCarthy
Maybe I'm biased because this is the only performance I've seen in this category. Screw that, Melissa McCarthy should win an Oscar. Megan may be too sexually overt and a little bit crazy, but its the confidence that McCarthy instills in her performance is what makes her such a funny and memorable character. She is not someone we ridicule for her antics, but rather someone we commend for being who she is. Many critics hailed "Bridesmaids" as the most groundbreaking thing for women since they gained the right to vote. That is a gross overstatement; but comedies that can't figure out to make a good female character should just look right here.

Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
"Midnight in Paris" was not merely Woody Allen's best movie in years, it was one of his best movies, period. I don't normally believe in fate, but I believe this is the role that Owen Wilson was put on this Earth to play, because he delivered each line of brilliant dialogue with the same neurotic sarcasm that Allen would have, but with his own unique twist. The script also included a plot that broke the space time continuum, and so rightfully didn't explain why or how this could happen. What "Midnight in Paris" realizes that few other movies do is that oftentimes the more you try and explain the unexplainable, the less sense it will make. Allen understands in this kind of movie that it is more important why the characters are there, not why it exists in the first place. Blending fantasy and reality has never been this funny.

Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
I thought "The Descendants" was a tad overrated. A very good movie, but not the masterpiece many have hailed it as. Also, it will be hard for another Alexander Payne movie (yes, even "Sideways") to hold a candle to "Election" in my eyes. Nonetheless, "The Descendants" had one of the year's best written movies, and it certainly is the most mature of all of Payne's works. It is just as good as any Coen Brothers movie in its close attention to the beauty and humor of regional colloquialisms. The poster image for this movie has been Clooney running down the street in nothing but boat shoes. But truly the most unforgettable image from this movie comes at the end, as Matt King and his two daughters sit on the couch and watch TV, just trying to be a normal family again. I can picture that scene being written out on a script so eloquently, and so quietly moving.

*Malick can also be seen in a brief cameo in "Badlands."
^I would especially check out Grant's performances in "North By Northwest" and "Arsenic and Old Lace."

Oscars 2012 Nominations: Initial Reaction

The Oscar Nominations were announced today, and there was less surprises in the movies included and more in those that were excluded. Those snubs are for another post entirely.

After a late release date and tepid reviews, "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" pulled off a surprise Best Picture nomination, as well as a Supporting Actor nod for Max von Sydow. Like Christopher Plummer, he is another veteran actor who has yet to take an Oscar home. Plummer, thought to be the guarenteed winner, now has some competition. Things just got interesting.

Meanwhile, "Hugo" received the most nominations of any movie this year, with a whopping total of 11. Frontrunner "The Artist" follows close behind with 10. The amount of nominations a movie receives usually doesn't usually equal a win, but "Hugo" definitely became a much more serious contender than it was prior to today.

The most satisfying part of the nominations is the prominent presence of pure comedies in the major categories. Woody Allen deservedly returned to the Best Picture and Best Director race with "Midnight in Paris." Meanwhile, "Bridesmaids" scored nominations for Kristen Wiig and Annie Mumolo in the Original Screenplay category, and for Melissa McCarthy as a supporting actress. This will mark the first time in Oscar history that a mainstream R-rated comedy with a combined puke and diarrhea joke gets to be nominated. It looks like comedies are finally starting to be taken more seriously. Maybe if "The 40-Year-Old Virgin," "Knocked Up," and "Superbad" had come out this year, they could've been contenders, too.

Full list of nominations here. My annual list of snubs will be published tomorrow. 

Speaking of comedies, Jim Rash is one of the writers who is nominated for "The Descendants." Yes, this guy.

They've Made a Huge Mistake: Eddie Murphy to Host Oscars

As if the Academy Awards hadn't already lost enough of my respect by passing over both "Inglourious Basterds" and "The Social Network" for Best Picture, AMPAS has officially chosen Eddie Murphy as their host this year.

This is not to say Eddie Murphy isn't funny. After all, he did make it acceptable for a black man to play an old Jewish man in "Coming to America." However, his comedy choices over the past decade or so have been incredibly questionable. I could bring up "Norbit," but that's too easy. Instead, I will remind you all of "Meet Dave," a movie in which Eddie Murphy plays Eddie Murphy inside of a space ship that is also Eddie Murphy. That sounds less like a real movie and more like something Tracy Jordan would have starred in.

Hopefully, Eddie Murphy could use this opportunity as a big comeback. Or Academy members will use this as a future opportunity to actually find a comedian people still like. Stephen Colbert? Jimmy Fallon? Donald Glover? Any of these would have been good choices.

Perhaps Murphy can pull this off, and bring everyone back to the days when he was a live performer on "Saturday Night Live." However, I highly doubt anything we see this year will be sadder than watching all of the charm being sucked out of James Franco and Anne Hathaway as occurred in last year's ceremony.*

*Editor's Note: Anne Hathaway is still the most beautiful woman ever to walk the face of this Earth.

The Oscars: The Show Goes On

Despite a feud between ABC and Cablevision that left millions unable to watch the big show, the Academy Awards still went on as planned.

As expected, "The Hurt Locker" took home the big prize at the Academy Awards, along with five other Oscars. Also, as expected, "Hurt Locker" director Kathryn Bigelow broke one of the last glass ceilings and became the first woman ever to take home the Best Director prize.

Perhaps the only real surprises of the night came in the Screenplay categories. The Best Adapted Screenplay category seemed like a done deal: "Up in the Air" had it basically since it came out in December. It's balance of comedy and drama, along with its ability to be both original and faithful, made it seem like a shoo-in. Instead, the heart-wrenching screenplay for "Precious" took home the prize. It seemed as if "Precious" had lost much of its momentum after its November release. Guess I was wrong on that one.

Meanwhile, in Best Original Screenplay, "The Hurt Locker" and "Inglourious Basterds" were virtually tied. It seemed that "Basterds" was a frontrunner, as "Hurt Locker" was much more of an achievement in directing and editing than it was in writing.

However, this night was a "Hurt Locker" sweep, so Tarantino unfortunately walked home empty handed. However, the film didn't get totally shut out: Waltz got his well-deserved Best Supporting Actor trophy. He also gave what was probably the best speech of the night. Seriously, this man has a knack for taking ordinary words and making them sound like poetry. As Waltz's Landa might say, "that's a bingo!" Lets hope he rides this to a fortuitous future career.

Another win, although expected, was still no less exciting. Jeff Bridges won the first Oscar of his long career for his performance as a burnt out country singer in "Crazy Heart." He movingly thanked his parents, saying the award was as much for them as it was for him. There's nothing much more to say about the greatness of Bridges besides this: "The Dude Abides."

No surprises in the female acting categories, either. Mo'Nique took home an Oscar for something that will not be lost in time and Sandra Bullock won for "The Blind Side." I have not seen "The Blind Side" yet, so therefore I can't judge Bullock's worthiness. However, from what I've seen of her, I do know that she is a good actress, and never a great one. Perhaps she can prove me wrong.

Now, onto the show itself. It was a night of ups and downs, or as the Dude would say, "strikes and gutters." The biggest up were the two hosts: Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin. Both men are funny and charismatic, but two hosts seemed like two much. However, it was perfect in every way. The two actors read off their scripted banter in the most perfect harmony. And they threw out a few good improvised lines, as well.

The pair of Baldwin and Martin were a welcome improvement over last year, when the Academy attempted the "song-and-dance man" approach with Hugh Jackman, with little success. While Baldwin and Martin would be great recurring hosts, Neil Patrick Harris proved himself an eligible contender contented his surprise performance at the beginning of the telecast. The combination of Baldwin and Martin (along with other performers like Harris) made a mostly predictable show easier to watch.

Before the winners were even announced, the Best Picture race was defined as a race between “The Hurt Locker” and “Avatar,” a true David and Goliath story.

This isn’t the first David and Goliath Oscar race, but this was one of the very first where David came out the victor. In the past, it seemed an A-list cast and a successful box office gross were key to getting the crown. It makes you think now that maybe “Goodfellas” could’ve beaten “Dances with Wolves,” “Pulp Fiction” could’ve beaten “Forrest Gump,” or even “L.A. Confidential” could’ve beaten “Titanic.”

Will “The Hurt Locker” be remembered down the road as a cinematic classic, or one of Oscar’s biggest mistakes? Maybe in the future it’ll be known as the best film made about the Iraq War, with “Inglourious Basterds” and “A Serious Man” being masterpieces ahead of their time, “Avatar” a fun blockbuster that changed visual cinema, “District 9” a sci-fi film on the same level with “Blade Runner,” and “Up in the Air” as an example for aspiring filmmakers of how to write a good script.

What I’m trying to say is that no matter your number one preference, and no matter what won, this was a rare year where almost every film and filmmaker earned their nominations. Here's to hoping 2010 is going to be another good year for cinema.

See the Full List of Winners Here.

The Oscars: Who Will Win

While an easy year to predict the Oscars might be good for your betting pool, it's never much fun. That's why I've gotten quite a kick out of this Oscar season. My picks just kept changing and changing.

At first, I saw "Precious" as the frontrunner. It opened with an amazing amount of festival buzz and strong opening numbers. Suddenly, it's box office glow began to fade and an unfortunate backlash followed. Then, "Up in the Air" became the critical smash of December and seemed to be the perfect Best Picture material. Then "Avatar" came along and broke every box office record imaginable and picked up a few Golden Globes on the way. At that point, "Avatar" was unstoppable.

But then, an underdog with very little Oscar qualities suddenly jumped ahead. "The Hurt Locker," indeed a fantastic and worthy film, seemed like it would just have to be happy with a nomination. It grossed a mere $12 million (it's the second lowest grossing Best Picture nominee this year, after "A Serious Man"), and first released in theaters last July. However, praise was beginning to overshadow clout. As "The Hurt Locker" swept the Guilds and every critics' award imaginable, it was clear what this year's frontrunner was.

Here now, are the films, filmmakers, actors, writers, and crew members you can bet on to take home the gold this Sunday night. I will present my predictions commentary free because I believe I've analyzed most of the following to death at this point:

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique

Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds

Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air

Best Animated Film: Up

Best Documentary: The Cove

Best Foreign Film: A Prophet

Best Editing: The Hurt Locker

Best Cinematography: The Hurt Locker

Best Visual Effects: Avatar

Best Score: Up

Best Song: The Weary Kind

Best Sound Editing: Avatar

Best Sound Mixing: Avatar

Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria

Best Makeup: Star Trek

Best Art Direction: Avatar

Best Live Action Short: The New Tenants

Best Documentary Short: Music By Prudence

Best Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death

The Hurt Locker: A New Frontrunner?

Well, I guess was wrong.

Just one week ago, all of the Oscar buzz was in favor of "Avatar." After dominating the box office for over a month, the film picked up the Golden Globes for Best Picture and Director. From reporters to ordinary moviegoers, no one would stop talking about "Avatar." It was riding an unstoppable wave to the top.

Then, one of the most important precursors to the Oscars, the Producers Guild of America, announced its pick for Best Picture: "The Hurt Locker." While "The Hurt Locker" picked up nearly every major critics' award, it went home empty handed at the Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards.

Now, just one award might not mean "Avatar" is a total goner. However, the Globes are not known as a very good predictor for the Oscars (sorry, "Hangover" fans). The Guild Awards are usually much more accurate, as much of the voting body for the Guilds also vote for the Oscars. Meanwhile, the HFPA, who vote for the Globes, are an entirely separate voting body.

This news still stuns me. While "The Hurt Locker" is one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year, its box office can't help it much. "The Hurt Locker" made about $12 million domestically. That's less than half of what "Avatar" made on its opening day.

Now, Best Picture winners don't necessarily need to be blockbusters like "Avatar," however I do recall people saying that the $54 million gross was too low.

Going beyond money, "The Hurt Locker" makes sense as a Best Picture winner. Not only is it a masterpiece, but it's a defining film of our time. It is by far the best film made yet about the Iraq War. It's a film that combines brilliant directing and technical mastery with fantastic performances and solid writing. Not to mention, it can go down as one of the most suspenseful films I've ever seen.

Also, awarding "The Hurt Locker" would be something of a brilliant move on the Academy's part. In a year where the Academy extended the field to 10 movies in order to attract bigger movies (and more viewers), nominating a little seen independent film like "The Hurt Locker" would be a hilarious screw you to the American public. Well, at least I'll be laughing.

"The Hurt Locker" might even have a bigger shot in the Best Director category. Kathryn Bigelow did an outstanding job giving her film a documentary feel and bringing out the highest level of tension in situations that involved absolutely no blood shed. This is the kind of work someone should win Awards for, and depending on which direction the DGA goes, I have a strong feeling that this could end up being the first year a woman picks up the prize for Best Director.

Then again, the Oscar nominations have yet to even come out. Who knows, maybe voters will shock us all and nominate neither. That's highly unlikely. One thing is for sure though: after years of easily predicted frontrunners ("No Country for Old Men," "Slumdog Millionaire"), we finally have little clue who is going to win. This could turn out to be one of the more exciting Oscar years in our lifetime.

Side Note: I can't forget to mention that "Inglourious Basterds," still my favorite movie of the year, one the SAG Award for Best Ensemble. Actors make up the largest portion of the Academy, and there is always a possibility that "Basterds" could pull of an upset like "Crash" did after it beat out "Brokeback Mountain" for the Best Ensemble prize. I can dream, can't I?

Why Avatar Could Win Best Picture

I know, the nominations won't be out for another few weeks, but I think I already see a winner emerging.

Even if it's too early to tell, "Avatar," which has basically rewritten the book on blockbuster filmmaking, will be the Oscar champion this year. Maybe voters will choose it because this year, there are 10 nominees for Best Picture. This is a throwback to the early days of the Oscars, and selecting "Avatar" might be the voters' way of saying they missed the good old days when a studio could make a lavish blockbuster that was actually, well...good.

Even if it does contain a radically new style of filmmaking, "Avatar" has everything a voter would look for in a movie: action, romance, humor, and drama. Mostly though, Academy members seem to favor the film freshest in their minds (with the rare exception of "Crash" in 2005), and "Avatar" is all anyone is talking about. This factor seems likely what propelled "Slumdog Millionaire" to be the little-film-that-could last year.

However, as great as "Avatar" was, does it even deserve the trophy? While "Avatar" was a milestone in special effects, its story and characters lacked in certain places. A film should win Best Picture for its quality, not just its importance.

However, "Avatar" does face some tough competition. As Owen Gleiberman points out, this year's race is mainly between the big budgeted "Avatar" and the smaller, character study of "Up in the Air." Both films are fresh in our minds and excellent for very different reasons. One film chronicles a shift in how films are made, while another represents how a good story on film should be told.

"Avatar" could loose out to "Up in the Air" the same way the film "Avatar" is so often compared to, "Star Wars," did. "Star Wars" lost to "Annie Hall," another classic black comedy heavy on character and light on action.

From the way I see it, Academy voters select winners using three different techniques: their heart, their brain, and hype. If voters decide to vote with their hearts, "Up in the Air" will be the likely winner. If they vote with their brains (highly unlikely), the winner would be either "Inglourious Basterds" or "The Hurt Locker."

This year, they'll go with the hype and select "Avatar." I'm not saying this because of a dislike of "Avatar," nor am I trying to start a backlash. I have remained just as wowed by "Avatar" as everyone else has. With "Avatar," James Cameron captured one of the most vividly amazing worlds ever created by the human imagination. This film will usher in a new era of fine filmmaking. However, without the groundbreaking special effects, the story would not have been strong enough to support "Avatar."

Also, I don't believe the greatness of "Avatar" is all hype. All I'm saying is that "Avatar" represents what voters think a Best Picture film should look like, rather than what a Best Picture film actually should be. That is precisely why you can count "Avatar" as this year's frontrunner.